A espera da retomada da economia


Passados os primeiros dias de 2017 os denominados agentes econômicos esperam ansiosamente a retomada do crescimento da economia. Por sinal, à medida que a economia volte a crescer, muitos dos problemas enfrentados pelo Brasil serão minimizados, como por exemplo, a queda da arrecadação tributária e principalmente a retomada do emprego.

Como tenho colocado, não é uma coisa automática, em que, virando o ano, há reversão de quadro. Temos ainda um bom caminho pela frente, mas a avaliação é que há porque acreditar na retomada da economia.

Os próprios organismos internacionais, como a ONU projetam crescimento para o Brasil. É certo que virá menor do que em Países semelhantes ao nosso, mas virá. Estamos falando de crescimento médio dos Países emergentes na ordem de 1,2% e no Brasil 0,5%. O resto do mundo deve crescer, na média, acima de 2% este ano.

Com juros internos menores é possível esperar que o consumidor se motive. Se houver uma combinação de facilidade para acertos das pendências financeiras das famílias, como por exemplo, renegociação de dívidas, com juros na ponta inferiores aos até aqui praticados, haverá um estímulo ao consumo, quer pela queda na atratividade nas aplicações financeiras (os agentes superavitários deixariam de poupar), quer pelo eventual apetite dos agentes deficitários (aqueles que utilizariam o crédito para antecipar suas compras).

A inflação controlada, com queda nos juros, e maior previsibilidade do que pode vir pela frente, poderão estimular os investidores. É certo que as empresas, na média, não estão capitalizadas suficientemente para retomarem os investimentos fortemente, mas é possível, na retomada da confiança destes investidores, que algum volume de recursos seja canalizado para esta rubrica.

Tudo isso passa pela rigidez fiscal, esta agora tendo como grande aliada o limitador de gastos públicos Federais, e ainda pelo estímulo às exportações, permitindo sobras comercias com o resto do mundo.

Observem que são caminhos factíveis, mas como colocado, que ainda demorarão algum tempo para se tornarem realidade.
Por isso tenho insistido que é preciso ser estrategista e contornar esses primeiros meses do ano. Não há milagre, há esperança, mas ambos dependem muito da determinação de cada agente econômico e sua capacidade de fazer mais com menos.

O início de ano é sempre o bom momento para recarregar energias e canalizá-la na direção certa. Faça isso!


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  19. zegt:Beste Erik,Bedankt voor je uitgebreide reactie.Ik ben het helemaal met je eens dat je jezelf kunt veranderen, als je dat wilt. En ook dat je kunt leren van de ervaringen van het verleden.Wel is er een mooie balans tussen (zelf)ontwikkeling en acceptatie. In dit artikel heb ik wat meer de nadruk gelegd op acceptatie. Want zelfontwikkeling zonder zelfacceptatie zorgt voor onvrede, zoals je terecht aangeeft.Dank voor je aanvullingen!Met vriendelijke groet,Frank

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